New York Times photo of a destroyed school next to an undamaged hotel.
This story from the May 25 New York Times has been in my “don’t forget to blog this” file for… um, over two weeks. It’s a profoundly sad look at how China’s construction boom led to the possibly preventable destruction of schools–and the children in them–during the Sichuan quake:
Techniques for fortifying buildings to withstand earthquakes have been clearly understood for decades. Use high-quality concrete. Embed extra iron rods. Tie them tightly into bundles with strong wire. Ensure that components of floors, walls and columns are firmly attached. Pay special attention to columns, which are the key to having a building sway rather than topple.
Engineers are already trying to assess how much of the destruction on May 12 should be attributed to faulty construction during China’s long and often helter-skelter building boom. The earthquake was so powerful, measuring at least 7.9 in magnitude, that a certain amount of damage could not be prevented. But engineering experts say Xinjian and some other schools in Sichuan were especially vulnerable.
The whole article’s worth a read. Some of the lessons to be drawn from this tragedy are easily applied to other situations where urgency and groupthink intersect. In this case, urgency can be externally or internally imposed, driven by anything from internal goals to competition to factors in the conceptual or physical environment. Space shuttle risks, arms races, and responses to climate change are all susceptible to a driving, singular mode of thought that precludes consideration of Black Swans. When the unthinkable becomes real, the signs are easy to see in retrospect.
Once you’ve finished reading the article, it would be well worth procuring a copy of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book. It’s one of the best things I’ve read this year, and it’s one of the few that might actually have the potential to prevent some of our most devastating losses.
New York Times graphic describing the widespread collapse of schools.
